Could this deep red state be a sleeper Senate win for Democrats?

Published by Daily Kos | August 18, 2024

North Dakota rarely makes much in the way of national news, but Democratic Senate nominee Katrina Christiansen is intent on changing that. If there’s a dark horse in the race for Democrats to keep their Senate majority, it could be her.

Christiansen is running against GOP incumbent Kevin Cramer. It’s North Dakota, so data out of the state is thin. The only independent poll conducted in 538’s list was done by Emerson College last October, which showed a substantial lead for Cramer. But it’s now 10 months later and the political world has shifted.

Christiansen’s campaign released internal polling from established firm Lake Research Partners that shows “After limited early paid communications, Christiansen is already making significant gains against Republican Senator Kevin Cramer.”

“Though this will be a challenge, with aggressive communications and outside help, Christiansen has a real opportunity to make this a competitive race and secure a win against Cramer,” the polling memo says. 

The Democrat’s message is appealing, Lake found, but another key factor is that Cramer’s support is soft. 

The polling found “60% of voters say they either would consider someone else (21%), would vote to replace Cramer (31%), or are not sure (eight percent).” Overall, he has just a 50% approval rating in this deep red state (Donald Trump got 65% of the vote in 2020) and 58% of independent voters have an unfavorable opinion of him (as do 83% of the state’s Democrats). Just 50% of voters think he’s doing a good job as senator.

His support is soft, Christiansen’s message is appealing, and what had been a 25-point race in Lake’s previous polling in February has become a 13-point race: Cramer sits at just 51%, with Christiansen at 38%. She’s winning independents 46% to 39%. Christiansen’s name ID has improved by 30% since February, and her favorability rating improved to 41% favorable versus 18% unfavorable. 

She also raised more money  than Cramer in the last quarter: $690,000, compared to Cramer’s $660,000. He has significantly more cash on hand, as you’d expect from an incumbent, but North Dakota is a cheap state to run a campaign in.

So who is Katrina Christiansen?

In her own words: “I'm this kid from Pender, Nebraska (population 1,048). I grew up poor, in harsh conditions. I had to work my way through college and keep up scholarships to pay for school. I've worked my whole life to get to where I am. I just want to make sure that people have the same opportunity that I had, and that they're OK, that they have the things they need in order to thrive in North Dakota.” 

Christiansen has a compelling story and she’s progressive on the key issues: She’s pro-choice, pro-filibuster reform, pro-making the rich pay more taxes, pro-Ukraine, and pro-environment. She believes in climate change and has an engineering background, so you know she’s pro-science.

It’s not unthinkable for a Democrat to win a Senate seat in North Dakota—both Heidi Heitkamp and Kent Conrad, who won his first term in the 1986 Reagan landslide, have done it. But Christiansen is not a Blue Dog Democrat like them—she’s not running to the right in order to get votes.

Is it going to be easy for Christiansen? No. But she—and the Democrats—have momentum on their side in 2024. This could really happen.