Port: Polling shows Democratic candidate Katrina Christiansen within 13 points of incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer

Published by The Jamestown Sun | August 14, 2024

MINOT — I have consistently argued that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Katrina Christiansen is running a stronger campaign in the 2024 cycle, where she's taking on incumbent Sen. Kevin Cramer, than she did in the 2022 cycle when she took on incumbent Sen. John Hoeven.

But I'm not sure Christiansen is doing as well as a recent poll commissioned by her campaign indicates.

The top line of the poll, that Christiansen is just 13 points behind Cramer, is within the realm of possibility. Christiansen's name identification is higher than it once was, and she's raised more money than any statewide Democratic candidate has in North Dakota since former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in the 2018 cycle.

Even if we acknowledge that Christiansen has been spending that money about as fast as she's raised it, it clearly hasn't been disappearing into the ether. It's been put to good use.

In October, an Emerson College survey had Christiansen at 19%.

In February, a survey released by Christiansen's campaign put her at 29%.

In June, a Public Opinion Strategies poll commissioned by the right-of-center political action committee Brighter Future Alliance had Christiansen at 28%.

Now Lake Research Partners, in a survey commissioned by Christiansen's campaign, has her at 38%. I think that number is likely a little high (more on that in a moment), but I believe the trend line. I think Christiansen really is making up ground in this race.

Now, let me throw some cold water on these numbers.

"Currently, 38% of voters vote for Christiansen, 51% vote for Cramer, and six percent are undecided," the polling memo provided to me by Christiansen's campaign states, and even if we accept that at face value, that's still not a great position to be in. The incumbent is over 50%, and even if every undecided voter were to swing to Christiansen, he'd still win the race by about seven points.

But I don't think the race is really even that close. Allow me to quote another passage from the survey that, to my mind, undermines its credibility: "After voters hear head-to-head profiles for Christiansen and Cramer, 46% of voters vote for Christiansen, 45% vote for Cramer, and five percent are undecided."

Wouldn't you like to know what the content of those "head-to-head profiles" the voters were read were? I suspect they were probably favorable to Christiansen, and tough on the incumbent. Which might be useful to Christiansen in telling us what sort of messaging might be effective against Cramer but calls into question the efficacy of the survey as a metric for determining where this race is at.

Again, I have no doubt that Christiansen has been picking up momentum. Her 2024 campaign is leaps and bounds better than her 2022 effort. She's an improved candidate running an improved operation.

In 2022, Christiansen, in a three-way race (former Republican lawmaker Rick Becker ran in the general election as an independent) got nearly 25% of the vote. In a two-way race, in an election cycle that's shaping up to be a tough one for Republicans, at a time when our political landscape is realigning in some significant ways, I think Christiansen could get close to 35 or 40% in this race.

But even that progress still leaves Cramer winning by more than 20%.

Democrats should take heart, though. This year may not be their year, yet, but with the Republican coalition in North Dakota showing some cracks, there portents for opportunities ahead.

— Opinion by Rob Port